HIV Statistics for NW England 2008
posted: 02/09/2009
The 2008 HIV statistics have recently been published. Here is a table showing the pattern of change in the number of new cases ('new cases' means new to the North West of England - it is mainly people newly diagnosed in the region, but also includes people who were diagnosed outside the region and now attended a HIV clinic in the region for the first time in 2008). The table also shows the total number of people who attended a NW HIV clinic sometime in 2008.
At first glance the number of new cases leapt by almost 100 between 2008 and 2009, and comments in the media have made much of this increase. The media also leapt on to the fact that 42% of people were infected abroad. Both points are true, but we need to read between the lines and not leap to false conclusions.
Yes the number of new cases is up, about 100 more than in 2007, but hardly different to 2005 and 2006.
For the last 5 years new cases have been broadly around 800 – 900 a year. We need to bear in mind that the numbers testing positive in 2008 tells us nothing about when the person became HIV positive, which may have been several, or even many years ago. We shouldn't leap to conclusions about any year to year change in the numbers, because there are all kinds of explanations. Here are a few -
- More people are testing each year
- Gay men especially have recently been encouraged to test at least once a year in high prevalence areas of the NW such as Manchester, Salford and Blackpool
- A larger number of people at higher risk of HIV who attend Sexual Health clinics may now be agreeing to take HIV tests - many refuse, especially people from groups more likely to have HIV, gay men and other men who have sex with men, migrants especially from regions with high rates of HIV such as sub-Saharan Africa, people from ethnic minorities, injecting drug users
- More pregnant women may be agreeing to antenatal HIV testing
- The greater availablility of community testing services
- More people are taking more sexual risks by having unprotected sex
- Random variation - when you flip a coin 100 times you don't get 50 heads and 50 tails each time - because of random variation. Sometimes it's a few more than 50, sometimes a few less. Sometimes a lot fewer of one than the other. It's always at work in HIV statistics - it depends on thousands of people's decisions about whether and when to go get tested.
'Infected abroad' pot stirred
The media reports picked out that 42% of the new cases in 2008 were infected abroad - particularly people from sub-Saharan Africa. This is old news - a quick look at the 2007 figures would have revealed an almost identical percentage. The explanation is simple. Britain is a global travel hub with strong ties to Commonwealth countries, many of which have high rates of HIV. Millions of people come and go here each year - as students, as workers (including doctors and nurses the NHS depends on), as visitors and tourists, and as people seeking safety here through asylum. Asylum applications are very much lower than in some previous years. Some people arriving here have HIV, but a George House Trust / Terrence Higgins Trust survey found most people have no idea of this before travelling here.
Use of NW HIV Voluntary Organisations chart
We will be carrying out a more detailed analysis of the 2008 HIV statistics for the region and will share this with you in due course.
The 2008 NW HIV Report is now published here
You can download this report HIV&AIDS in North West England 2008 direct from us - it is a large pdf file (2.48 Mb), so please be patient.
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